Media Phoenix
I’m very excited about the changes in the media business right now. The Internet is just a wrecking ball to media’s old run, down building.
Okay, maybe that isn’t fair, but I can tell you this: in 5 years (on the outside, 10 years for 100% certain) every type of media we have now: books, newspapers, television and radio are going to be radically different. A lot, if not most of that content, is going to be delivered over the Internet. The technology—production, distribution, and devices—is finally getting good enough that this will be a reality soon as opposed to some time “in the future”.
A few weeks ago, I was in New York having dinner with Gary Vaynerchuck. One of the points Gary was making was that the next three years—the recession years—are going to be key…when the die is cast. In these tough times, we will start to see a real shakeout in the media business and the playing field will be shaped for the next era in media.
My sense of economics tells me the same thing, and this morning I was reminded of that conversation as I was reading James Surowiecki’s current New Yorker column. His column provides some historical evidence to support this idea.
Surowiecki’s column talks about how recessions shake up market share and the impact that different reactions to recession influence a company’s post-recession market position. History shows, he says, that some companies respond aggressively and strengthen their position in the long-run. Others hunker down and, while stabilizing in the short-term, often end up weaker post-recession.
This isn’t just any old recession for the media business. Of course, it’s not a normal recession for any industry, but for the media business it’s the perfect storm. Not only is the media business facing the same macro-economic issues that other businesses are facing, but structural changes in the business brought about by technology are a double-whammy.
So, what’s the moral of the story? The next three years are going to be ruinous and crushing and uncertain. Those who hunker down will survive in the short-term, and those who embrace this tidal wave of change are going to win in the end.
