Scott Porad

Dave McClure recently wrote a blog post that everyone is going gaga over…here’s the money line:

Gradually we are discovering that the default revenue model on the internet should probably be the simplest one — that is: basic transactions for physical or digital goods, and recurring transactions (aka subscriptions) for repeat usage.

This is not new.  In fact, it’s the same shift that happened after the first dotcom bust.

When we launched drugstore.com, it wasn’t initially clear if the core of the business was e-commerce product transactions or health and wellness information (like WebMD) or an online health magazine.  But, when the economy tanked, the answer became crystal clear: e-commerce was the core of the business because it was the actual way to make revenue.

Now, we’re in Web 2.0 and we’re doing the same thing over again.  The economy has tanked, people need to make money, and…oh, look at that, charging for things is the best way to do it!

In other words, Web 2.0 is the same thing as Web 1.0, it’s just that the players and technologies are different.

There’s an old phrase, “those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it”.  I’m not sure if this is “doom” versus the realization that every business cycle has similar characteristics and phases.  In another 5 years, this phase of Web 2.0 will shake out, and then we’ll be on to some new technologies and Web 3.0.  Rinse, lather, repeat.

From there, Dave goes on to explain who—as part of this great revenue realignment—is going to win.  His points on the winners and losers are interesting.  I can’t say one way or the other if his predictions are correct, but his trendspotting is right on.