Scott Porad

My friend Lew and I share season tickets to the local college basketball team, and often talk about sports.  When the initial Tiger Woods scandal broke earlier this fall, we exchanged several long e-mails analyzing the situation.  Yesterday, Tiger announced his return to professional golf, and today I wrote the e-mail below to Lew.

With encouragement from my friend Arianna, I have published it here, however I must admit that I’m somewhat nervous about saying these things publicly.  Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Lew–

I read this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/sports/golf/17rhoden.html and considered the possible outcomes for Tiger Woods at the 2010 Masters. I see five possibilities, although the story of Tiger’s Fall and my present place of employment leave me mindful that there are always things that happen which once seemed impossible.

1. Shits the bed, and slams the trunk.
This would be a pretty bad outcome both reputation- and endorsement-wise, although it’s a perfectly reasonable expectation given the recent distractions. On the other hand, Tiger is good at focusing, and he’s probably spent a lot of time thinking about golf instead of pretty much everything else. (Shoot, if I were Tiger I would have moved into the freaking greenskeeper’s shed.  Of course, if I were Tiger I wouldn’t have been stupid enough to cheat on my devoted wife and beautiful children.)  On the other other hand, lots of people would think this is what he deserves.

Odds: 10:1.

2. Makes the cut, but finishes in the middle-to-back of the pack.
In my view, this the best outcome for everyone involved. The bubble of his return is broken, but it avoids the complete media circus of either missing the cut or being in contention. Realistically, this is probably what he deserves…to get back into it, play respectably, but to not be a super-star just yet.

Odds: 3:1.

3. In play on Sunday, but not realistically close unless he shoots a 65.
I don’t like this outcome because TV will be compelled to keep him in the story line, and it will feel really awkward because he really doesn’t deserve to be in the story line, but he’ll a giant elephant in the room. I feel like watching this scenario on TV will be really uncomfortable because normally players in this case you want to root for…I don’t know how I’m going to feel about rooting for Tiger, so I’d prefer not to be forced into that decision yet.

Odds: 5:1.

4. In a legitimate position to win on Sunday, but doesn’t.
In other words, tees off in one of the final four pairings. This might be the best outcome for Tiger: he gets to show he still has his stuff, but also gets to be humble in losing. But, it has the drawbacks of a complete media circus and a really weird story line of TV. Also, it puts me in that position of having to choose whether to root for or against Tiger. As a fan, I do not like this scenario.

Odds: 7:1.

5. Tiger wins.
Either mass hysteria or mass confusion. Nobody knows what to do. Uncharted territory. A scenario like this has never happened before, never, ever, ever. Does the crowd on 18 cheer, applaud, golf clap, or sit quietly? Does his partner shake his hand? Who runs out to hug Tiger as he walks off the green? What on earth does Jim Nantz say to Tiger in the Butler Cabin? What on earth does Tiger say back? (Of course, there are two versions of this scenario: he wins close and he wins going away such that the last 5 holes of the tournament are what would normally be the coronation. Either way, crazeeeeee.) I’m very mixed about this scenario. On the one hand, it would be a sight to see. On the other, it would be amazingly weird.

Odds: 9:1.

Thoughts?

Scott