To GOOG or Not to GOOG? That is the question.
I’ve been thinking a lot about Google lately, or more specifically GOOG. I would be interested in knowing your thoughts…leave them in the comments.
As I understand it, the hottest things in technology these days (besides lolcats) are mobile and social (and geo-location, but humor me and ignore that).
With respect to mobile, primarily the battle is between Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android. I see a lot of analogy between Google and Apple at present with mobile operating systems, and Microsoft and Apple about 20 years ago with desktop operating systems.
In other words, Google is Microsoft with the more open operating system, and Apple is Apple (again) with the more closed system. Even though AAPL is high-flying now, it’s pretty obvious that Microsoft won that war.
On the other hand, Google can’t seem to tell its knee from it’s elbow when it comes to social. Apple doesn’t really have a dog in the social fight, but Google is being defeated by Facebook and Twitter (and, to some extent, Bing who seemingly has better relationships with each). Adam Rifkin wrote a fun piece about Google and why they’re not optimized to succeed at social, haven’t succeeded at social, and won’t succeed at social.
So, in the question of GOOG, it all boils down to this: which is going to be more important for Google in the next 5-10 years—owning the leading social applications or owning the leading mobile operating system?
To me, it’s pretty clear that Google is placing it’s bet on the mobile OS. Is that the right bet?
What happens if Google wins the mobile OS battle, but loses the social ground to Facebook et al.? What about the opposite? What if Google somehow, magically, wins social, but loses mobile? (Obviously, winning both is good, and losing both is bad.)
I don’t know the answer to these questions, but find them very interesting. What do you think?
My opinion is the right bet was made and Android will be more important than the apps it runs for social. I think that because I know a lot of people who don’t use or actually dislike most of the social media platforms, but they still own an Iphone. Who doesn’t have a phone? Even if you don’t utilize it; with the costs of phones including two year contracts the incentive to get a newer phone is high.
Taylor j. Eke
13 Jul 10 at 7:57 am
Regarding Google and Facebook, I saw an interesting infographic (http://www.visualeconomics.com/the-republic-of-facebook_2010-06-29/) the other day which had a statement on it, “Zynga, the top app developer [for Facebook], made $250 million in 2009. Of that amount, $80-$150 million is estimated to be profit, more net profit than Facebook itself made.” With Google’s recent investment in Zynga, I’d say that GOOG is doing what capitalist, for-profit companies do best: looking to make money. Facebook as a platform is great, but Zynga figured out how to milk the dollars out of it. So instead of owning the social media applications, Google may want to own the money making bits on those applications.
Eli Thompson
13 Jul 10 at 8:55 am