Lessons from Cannabis Legalization in California and The Backfire Effect

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I was in Boulder, Colorado earlier this week.  When casually talking to locals the inevitable came up: in just a few weeks, Washington State and Colorado will be the first states in the union to allow marijuana to be sold like alcohol.

marijuana-californiaNow, nothing makes me happier than when facts trump assumptions.  It’s just one of the many obnoxious, nerdy aspect of my personality.  So, when I saw this in the paper this morning, my interest was piqued:

California Finds Fears Unfounded With Cannabis Use: California’s experience as the first state to legalize medical marijuana offers surprising lessons, experts say.

[A]t a time when polls show widening public support for legalization…California’s 17-year experience as the first state to legalize medical marijuana offers surprising lessons, experts say.

Warnings voiced against partial legalization — of civic disorder, increased lawlessness and a drastic rise in other drug use — have proved unfounded.

Instead, research suggests both that marijuana has become an alcohol substitute for younger people here and in other states that have legalized medical marijuana, and that while driving under the influence of any intoxicant is dangerous, driving after smoking marijuana is less dangerous than after drinking alcohol.

Although marijuana is legal here only for medical use, it is widely available. There is no evidence that its use by teenagers has risen since the 1996 legalization, though it is an open question whether outright legalization would make the drug that much easier for young people to get, and thus contribute to increased use.

And though Los Angeles has struggled to regulate marijuana dispensaries, with neighborhoods upset at their sheer number, the threat of unsavory street traffic and the stigma of marijuana shops on the corner, communities that imposed early and strict regulations on their operations have not experienced such disruption.

Imposing a local tax on medical marijuana, as Oakland, San Jose and other communities have done, has not pushed consumers to drug dealers as some analysts expected. Presumably that is because it is so easy to get reliable and high-quality marijuana legally.

Finally, for consumers, the era of legalized medical marijuana has meant an expanded market and often cheaper prices.

Following upon on the contrast between Los Angeles and other cities:

In Los Angeles, repeated attempts to regulate the stores have failed, causing an uproar in quiet neighborhoods like Larchmont and Mar Vista. Yet there is a lesson here: San Francisco, Oakland and Berkeley, which imposed strict regulations on the shops from the start, have had few problems.

“Those cities really took charge in 1996, saying: ‘We have to figure out how we are going to regulate this. We need to figure out how marijuana could be sold, how it will be regulated, what it will mean for tax revenue,’ ” Ms. Reiman said. “As a result, those three cities have seen little to no issues in terms of crime or public safety issues.”

Naturally, despite evidence to the contrary, there are still opposing voices…just another case of The Backfire Effect, “When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.”

 

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October 27th, 2013 at 8:16 am

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An Email to the NSA

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To: Scott Porad <scottporad@gmail.com>
From: Scott Porad <scottporad@gmail.com>
Date: October 26, 2013
Subject: NSA for TSA Swap

 

Dear NSA,

I have an idea for you, and since you’re reading my e-mail anyhow, I figured sending an email to myself was the easiest way to tell you about it.

An intervention: you have a problem. Admit it. Like an alcoholic who owns a bar, you can’t see that you’re completely out of control, illegally spying on all sorts of people, domestic and foreign alike. You think that you’re just doing your job, serving up drinks and being the life of the party, when what you’re really doing is making a fool of yourself to your patrons.

My plan would help Mother Jones relax!

Given that I use all sorts of online services, I have no doubt that the you’ve illegally intercepted a bunch of my personal data. Am I okay with that? I don’t know.. maybe, maybe not. Privacy is a complicated subject, and I haven’t made my mind up yet.

But, you know what I do know: I have absolutely nothing to hide. You could look at every web site I’ve ever surfed, every email I’ve ever sent, all my telephone, banking and credit card records, my travel records, my photos, Facebook, Twitter…whatever.

Yes, there will definitely be a few embarrassing things found, but I swear to goodness, there is nothing even remotely resembling a national security threat in there.

My life is just not that interesting.  Sorry to disaapoint.

Now, hold that thought because I want to tell you that this week I traveled from Seattle to Denver. (Haha! You already knew that.) This trip meant two passes through the TSA security screening. As you know, the TSA is a giant hassle. Most people I know hate the TSA, but we don’t need to go there right now. You’ve heard the stories.

And, like most people I know, I really wish I didn’t have to deal with the TSA.

This got me to thinking: it turns out that we each have something the other wants. I want less headache at the airport, and you want to validate that I’m not a terrorist. In other words, time is valuable to me and information is valuable to you.

So, let’s make a deal: I will give the you permission to read all my personal, private stuff and in exchange you will make it so that I can skip the TSA at the airport.

And, of course, if after reading through my stuff it turns out that I am a terrorist, then you can just come and get me since my mobile phone will tell you my location.

Whaddya think?  Seems like a fair deal to me.  A real genuine win-win.

Sincerely yours,

Scott

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October 26th, 2013 at 8:53 am

Must See TV: Congressional Hearings on healthcare.gov issues

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Following upon my earlier post about the problems with healthcare.gov, Twitter follower ‏@lukeoreilly sent me a link to a great article: Notes and Translations for the New York Times coverage of healthcare.gov software.  It’s totally worth a read, though my favorite part was this:

“Nevertheless, disarray has distinguished the project. In the last 10 months alone, [...] officials modified hardware and software requirements for the exchange seven times. It went live on Oct. 1 before the government and contractors had fully tested the complete system. Delays by the government in issuing specifications for the system reduced the time available for testing.”

Now this really makes me want to cry, because this is going to be the crux of the matter when the Congressional Committees grill the contractors. It is not going to be pretty. There is going to be a lot of drill-down on matters that the contractors have a hard time explaining, and the committee members are going to have a hard time understanding. It is going to be extremely tedious television, I assure you.

As someone who has spent a lot of time squirming in a chair trying to explain why some software project was off schedule, I cannot wait to watch those hearings.  Full on Train Wreck TV™.

Look: some of the very best minds I know have completely given up on attempting to create accurate schedules for software development.  It’s not like building a house where we have several thousands of years of experience with construction practices and timelines.  The discipline is just too new, and the technology is changing too rapidly.

Think about it: our government has standardized building codes for how to construct a house….that’s how well we understand home construction, to the point where we can codify it!  Nobody has that for software development.  Ask 3 engineers how to build any given software, and you’ll get 5 opinions.

Coming soon on Train Wreck TV™: Congressional Hearings on Healtcare.gov!!  I can’t wait!

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October 22nd, 2013 at 11:29 am

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How predictable were the problems with Healthcare.gov?

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If you read this blog, I have never kept my political inclinations a secret.  Since the early-mid 2000′s I’ve increasingly become more of a liberal…to the point where I’m practically a socialist these days.  (Dear NSA analyist reading this: I’m not really a socialist, and even if I were, that’s not a crime.)  So, it’s no surprise that I’m a big supporter of Obamacare.

But, when I read this about the problems surrounding healthcare.gov, I had to laugh:

One specialist said that as many as five million lines of software code may need to be rewritten before the Web site runs properly.

Show me a web site with five million lines of code and I’ll show you a recipe for disaster.

Look, in the long run, it’s all going to work out.  Even well-designed software has problems, and fixing those problems is fairly mechanical: identify the issues, make a list, prioritize the list and work through the issues.  It might take a little time, and the teams working on it might be a little stressed right now, but any software development professional can tell you this is fairly routine.

Frankly, to me, it was no surprise that healthcare.gov was a mess at launch.  And, I bet that 4 out of 5 people who have been building web sites professionally would agree.  I mean, I could see this debacle coming from a mile a way…just do the math:

Multiple outsourced contractors
+ government spec’d project
+ waterfall-style development process
+ an eagerly anticipated launch
+ to an enormous audience 
= Guaranteed Fiasco

Seriously, for those of us who run iterative, Agile-style development processes with private betas and plenty of user testing…50% of the time we make mistakes.  For people to expect anything less than what’s currently happening with healthcare.gov…well, that was just completely unrealistic.

So, you know what, chillax…give it time.  In a few months, the software will have the bugs worked out.  The web site will be easy to use.  People will find great insurance at a great price.  And, in just a few years, we’ll have people saying “Keep your government hands off my Obamacare!

 

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October 22nd, 2013 at 9:36 am

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Aaaaaaaand, we’re back!

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Aaaaaaaand, we’re back!

The last time I posted here was the last day of school, and prior to that I had decided that I was going to take the summer off from writing. There was just a lot going on in my life, and I needed a break.

Amongst other stresses, I was struggling with parenting.  As my kids have gotten older (they’re 8 and 11, now) they’ve become more independent and assertive, naturally, and let’s just say that I was not endowed by my creator with an endless fountain of patience.  About 97% of parenting is modeling, and frequently I don’t model very well. I’m trying hard to be more patient and let them make their own decisions and mistakes.

Nevertheless, my older son is extremely enthusiastic about technology, and this summer he set a goal of building and shipping an iOS app to the App Store before he went back to school.  He worked very hard, and it was an amazing experience. I gave him a few pointers here and there when he got stuck, but honest to goodness, 99% of the work he did on his own and met his goal!

As an extremely proud father, I present to you Kinoki. It’s a math puzzle game which he wrote entirely himself in Objective-C.  (Not only would he appreciate your shares, he’d be thrilled to tears if you downloaded the app, left a 5-star review on the app store, and sent him some feedback through the app.)

Then, as the summer wore on, I was deeply reminded of my own mortality.  I had a close friend pass away after a year long fight with cancer.  I am lucky to have two grandparents still alive, both in their 90′s, but less and less able to care for themselves, so I spent a lot of time caring for them.  And, finally, I turned 40 and visited my doctor for a check-up because it had been years; he gave me a very stern talking to: eat right and exercise or you’re going to die young.

“How you take care of yourself for next 10 years of your life will determine whether or not you’re dancing at your kids weddings”, he said.

So, yeah, mortality was on my mind this summer.

And, then, when I wanted to get back to writing I had genuine writers block.  I told myself that I’d start writing again when school started.  But, I didn’t know what I wanted to write about, I didn’t know what to say.  The topics I’d written about previously…mostly work stuff…didn’t seem all that relevant given where my head was at this summer.

Plus, there were some new things going on that were taking my time.  In addition to my day job at Rover.com, I was working on a side project in the local Seattle music, arts and entertainment scene which I’ve only started to pull the covers back on in the last week.  (Shameless plug: we’re hiring!  Check out http://spazindustries.com.)

And, I’ve started to take on some new responsibilities at Rover by taking a more formal role leading our demand generation and marketing activities—which is both exciting and scary, and something I’m sure to be writing about more soon.

So, that’s what’s up and where I’ve been.  I’m glad to be back and hope to be more consistent here again.

Keep in touch!

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October 21st, 2013 at 9:25 am

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INME: School’s Out

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Children feel many intense emotions, but there are two feelings that nearly all of us share and can remember as adults: the eager, nervous excitement of the first day of school and the jubilant emancipation of the last.

Today, was the last day of school for my kids, and I drive my kids to school every day, then head in to my office.  The drive takes about 15-20 minutes, and in order to avoid fights between them about what we’re going to listen to on the ride I have previously declared myself The Absolute Dictator of the Radio.  I introduced them to Alice Cooper today.

As I watched this video I noted just how bad Alice Cooper is: not only does he pop a balloon, the chaotic and climatic ending is punctuated with bubbles!

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June 14th, 2013 at 9:19 am

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INME: Minus the Bear

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I’ve liked Minus the Bear for awhile now…just something catchy about their sound.  I was pleased to find out they’ll be playing a music festival north of Seattle this summer.

 

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June 7th, 2013 at 8:42 am

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INME Friday: Frank Zappa does Stairway to Heaven

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You may not like Zappa, and you may think Stairway to Heaven has jumped the shark, but trust me, this is worth a listen.

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May 31st, 2013 at 10:55 am

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Phone Interview Tips

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A friend of mine sent a message to an handful of friends today:

I got my first phone interview lined up and I’ve never done this before. I would love some pro-tips on making it successful.

I’m not sure if these are actually pro-tips, but here’s what I offered:

1. Have a piece of paper and pen in front of you.

2. Take a moment to think before answering.

3. Don’t be afraid to respond to their question with a probing, clarifying quesiton…so that you can answer it more in line with what they want.

4.  Be yourself, you’re awesome as you are!

What would you have suggested?

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May 28th, 2013 at 5:26 pm

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INME Friday: Sasquatch

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May 24th, 2013 at 9:29 am

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